Author Archives: Albert Suckow

A Rulebook for Arguments by Anthony Weston

June 3, 2013 4:00 am /

A Rulebook for Arguments by Anthony WestonBook Review: A Rulebook for Arguments by Anthony Weston

What’s the good of arguing? One possibility is that under the right conditions it gets us closer to the truth. What are the conditions required?

First, an open mind and a basic respect for the truth.

Second, the assumption that your partner has an open mind and a basic respect for the truth.

Third, the discussion should be based on reason. If it is based on emotion, then you just have two people expressing their feelings and no progress is made.

What is reason? This very small no-nonsense “rulebook” offers a great start.

Weston’s main purpose for the book was to allow a professor to expedite grading essays. Rather than offer a long-winded explanation, he can refer his students to “rule 19″ and they know that they have somehow overlooked or failed to address alternative explanations for a correlation. [I sure wish a teacher had given me a book like this!]

But there are other uses as well. You can simply browse it in a reflective spirit to determine if you make any of these mistakes in your daily life. Incident investigators and root cause analysts can use chapter 6 on deductive arguments, to enhance their reasoning. [PROACT analysts in particular, will find the disjunctive syllogism, rule 25, very very familiar.]

Or, if you decide that a productive conversation is no longer in your interest, you can simply use the new latin terms to agitate people. ["My dear brother-in-law: I'm afraid that your attempt at reductio ad absurdum suffers from an erroneous false dilemma."]

Okay, okay. That last paragraph was a joke. Sort of. [Gentle humor or subtle gamesmanship is usually more effective against a raving political philosopher at the dinner-table.]

Normally I would have “key concepts” and “useful features” here, but in this case, the only key concept is that arguments should be based on reason rather than emotion, and as a short reference work it serves as it’s own “useful feature.”

Publisher’s Blurb

From Amazon.com:

A Rulebook for Arguments is a succinct introduction to the art of writing and assessing arguments, organized around specific rules, each illustrated and explained soundly but briefly. This widely popular primer – translated into eight languages – remains the first choice in all disciplines for writers who seek straightforward guidance about how to assess arguments and how to cogently construct them.

The fourth edition offers a revamped and more tightly focused approach to extended arguments, a new chapter on oral arguments, and updated examples and topics throughout.

Table of Contents

Preface

Note to the Fourth Edition

Introduction

Chapter 1: Short Arguments: Some General Rules

Chapter 2: Generalizations

Chapter 3: Arguments by Analogy

Chapter 4: Sources

Chapter 5: Arguments About Causes

Chapter 6: Deductive Arguments

Chapter 7: Extended Arguments

Chapter 8: Argumentative Essays

Chapter 9: Oral Arguments

Appendix 1: Some Common Fallacies

Appendix 2: Definitions

Resources

Posted in: Books, Reviews / Tagged:

Weekend Reading: Boomers and Milennials

May 31, 2013 4:00 am /

Weekend Reading: Miscellaneous Classic BooksMindTools on body language and first impressions

Questions to ask [and the mindset to have] when hiring your first boss

Design and construction of lifting beams

A nicely-balanced article on the boomer stereotyping of milennials. References this excellent piece from The Atlantic. For an interesting cyclical perspective on the generational question, see Strauss & Howe’s Generations: The History of America’s Future, 1584-2069.

Contrarian Corner: Think sunscreen reduces your risk of cancer? Think again.

When buying from a dealer, consider what the fine print actually means

A crucial distinction if you have authority: are you a leader or bureaucrat? [In my experience, it may actually be easier to be a leader at times when you do not have officially-sanctioned authority.]

Normal science in the Kuhn cycle model

A steam-powered box factory still in operation:

Posted in: Weekend Reading / Tagged: , , ,

Weekend Reading: Auto Maintenance and Driving

May 24, 2013 4:00 am /

Weekend Reading: Miscellaneous Classic BooksA multifaceted approach to being taken seriously

Talent strategies for a post-loyalty world

Have stock exchanges outlived their usefulness?

The challenge of human reliability

Gut feel or analytics? The trend is toward analytics.

Words that replace thought

Speaking of “replacing thought” here’s more clover taxonomy from Eric Peters

MindTools for effective feedback: the SBI tool, giving praise, and rewarding the team

An approach to visualizing data

Some good advice on acting a leader before you become one

Potential downside of positivity: when you refuse to acknowledge it’s a challenge your coworkers can feel stifled

If you’re going to work on your own vehicle, DON’T DO THESE THINGS

Procedures without stifling creativity and innovation: must-do, should-do, and may-do

Eggs vs. Cereal: Which is the breakfast of champions?

Posted in: Weekend Reading / Tagged: , , , ,

Safety Meeting: Mental States and Overcoming Incentives

May 23, 2013 2:20 pm /

Safety Hazard: Crane-Supported LawnmowerThe following outline for a safety meeting was delivered to a crew of maintenance personnel at a special safety stand-down. The key message was that there are four mental states that lead to safety incidents. [For more information on this see SafeStart.] The causes of these mental states are to some extent unavoidable. Since we can either try to prevent causes of deal with them when they occur, we discussed coping methods.

At the end, we discussed how much we should let perverse incentives influence our quality of work. [I simplified the language since I was speaking to a non-MBM audience.]

Note: Wherever an ellipsis (…) occurs, that is where I expect (demand) audience participation.

Meeting Outline

Who digs talking about feelings? Does anyone get excited talking about feelings?…

But does psychology affect our safety performance? Remember a few months ago when I talked about Joe Kramer, the south Chicago railroad welder? I talked about his positive attitude, but I didn’t say a thing about safety. Yet this very group made predictions about his own safety record, and the number of injuries he prevented in the course of his career.

Late in last turnaround I talked about 4 mental states involved in safety incidents. Can you recall them?…

I also challenged everyone to try to think of injuries or near misses, whether at work or home, that did not involve at least one of those four mental states. Was anybody successful with that?…

Who here has experienced work-related frustration? I won’t ask how often, I promise…

  • Any new policies poorly communicated?
  • Any new rules that seemed to make it harder to do your job? Or they came from people who don’t understand your working conditions (even if their intent was good)?
  • Any personal or family issues on your mind when you were at work?
  • Anyone get called in at a less-than-perfect time?
  • Any criticism of your job performance that seemed unfair?
  • Anyone go to do a job with a vague job plan, poorly written procedure, or patch something that should have a permanent fix?

Does this stuff happen just here?…

Since it seems unreasonable to assume that we will never be frustrated at work, what can we do when we are frustrated?…

Here are some questions I have found useful for lending perspective to frustration when something’s got to be done:

So my kid is getting bad grades or acting disrespectful. So my wife wants something I don’t want to buy. So my furnace died. So the boss said something unfair. Does that justify whatever injury I get? Does that let me off the hook for hurting myself and letting down the people who need me? Do I get a pass because I had other problems?

Who here has experienced fatigue at work?

  • Has anyone sent home in the morning to come in for night shift failed to come in that evening completely rested and refreshed?
  • Has anyone felt less than 100% in hour 15 of a 16-hour shift? Or their tenth straight day of work?
  • Any babies waking you up in the middle of the night?

Since it’s not yet reasonable to assume perfect tranquility both at home and work, what can we do in anticipation of fatigue?…

Who has ever, even once, felt rushed to get the job done at work? I have to admit, when I worked in operations, I said to a maintenance foreman that I wanted everything done, I wanted it yesterday, and I wanted precision. What was I missing in my list of demands?

  • Farmers and ranchers: do the seasons wait until you’re ready and all set to go?
  • Has anyone ever asked you when the job would be done, but really meant to tell you to get it done soon?
  • Anyone felt that for whatever reason you didn’t get much done that morning and wanted to have something to show for your time when you went to lunch?
  • Anyone ever get edgy around 4:30 or 5:00 when a job is dragging on longer than expected?

I don’t see any solutions to separate maintenance work and time pressure. So again, were focused less on prevention and more on dealing with it. What are some ways to keep rushing from impacting our work?…

Complacency is when you know that a hazard is present but you think it won’t happen and you just decide to go ahead and “be careful.” [Tell story of contractor carrying large pneumatic cylinder up a ladder.]

Complacency lends itself to prevention more than the others. It’s a lot easier to prevent complacency than it is to prevent frustration…

On Letting Mental States Determine Our Work Method: I’d like to share a personal story about mental states and the way that we work. Many years ago I was blindsided by a negative performance review that came at a very inopportune time. Objectively, I had exceeded the goals set with my team leader at the beginning of the year, but then he left and I didn’t talk much with his replacement. I thought I was due for a promotion and had a transfer in mind, so I wanted this review to be on the high end. At what really ended up being our first real discussion of anything, period, I was put at the low end. There were really no specific criticisms, no guidance on what could be done better, or justification for being so low.

This really spoiled a lot of what I had planned and so I was less than enthused with being at work. I was so angry that for one month I resolved to do the absolute minimum required not to get fired while I worked out my plan for what was next. I really felt hopeless because I had worked hard and even done a few creative things to get my projects done on time and under budget.

But here’s what happened that month: it was the most miserable month of work I can ever remember.

So the lesson I took away from the experience is this: I do the best work I can the best I know how. Sometimes it’s recognized and I get praised or rewarded. And that’s great. Sometimes it isn’t noticed at all or some trivial aspect of it is criticized. And that sucks.

But regardless of how I feel, I try to work exactly the same way. In the end, it really doesn’t matter what the external rewards are because doing less than my best is a miserable experience.

Posted in: Safety Meetings, Toolbox / Tagged: ,

Weekend Reading: Some Things Are Best Done Badly

May 17, 2013 4:00 am /

Weekend Reading: Miscellaneous Classic BooksMindTools for Chaos, Hate, & Discontent: Managing “Rebels”, Addressing Tardiness, and Organizing the Disorganized

The top ten words given to the English language by the internet

Injured Hispanic worker could not read English warning sign; sues for discrimination.

How to plan for productive and happy summer interns (and why)

The health warnings written on your face

Project Management: Teach Subcontractors to Use Project Metrics

How amplified individuals are doing what established institutions can not do [The concise description of a little-known phenomenon and some insightful suggestions makes the self-promotion of the author tolerable.]

How Small Wins Can Lead to Big Success

Fact: Funding  improvements in a large company is a bureaucratic nightmare. Potential solution: internal capital markets. [Market-Based Management goes mainstream?]

Noria lays out oil filter ratings

Flying Flashback: Before fear ruled the airport and the masses begged to be fondled, searched, and patted and thanked the Commissars so gratefully

Torquing: it should be part of your plant’s standard work process

Some things are best done badly

Unfortunately, I have to miss them when they come to Boise, but here’s Celtic Woman with The Voice:

Posted in: Weekend Reading / Tagged: , , ,

Planned Experiment Planning Form

May 12, 2013 7:50 pm /

Quality Improvement Through Planned Experimentation by Ronald MoenThis planned experiment planning form is available for download in Excel or PDF format. This is based on Ronald Moen’s Quality Improvement Through Planned Experimentation, 3/E and an understanding of the contents of that book would be needed to use this productively.

Use the links below to download:

Posted in: Toolbox / Tagged: ,

Cause Mapping the Abilene Paradox (With a Few More Solutions and Resources)

May 7, 2013 11:16 am /

Rocky Mountain Fog near a Valley RoadI have written before about the road to abilene, which comes from an article [PDF] referenced in the book Success With the Gentle Art of Verbal Self-Defense. This concept is so important to organizational function that it bears greater discussion. It’s implications for the MBM Challenge Process and organizational health are hard to overstate.

The Abilene Paradox is that sometimes, it’s false agreement, rather than conflict, that trips up organizations and causes them to go in unproductive or counterproductive directions. When people privately assess the situation one way, perceive that others think differently, and then agree with what they think the group believes, we have the paradox.

Let’s distill the article into a causemap. Here are the causal factors, evidence, and possible solutions enumerated by the article:

Cause Mapping the Abilene Paradox

Click for full size

This exercise helps in a very significant way: it allows us to examine what questions have been explored, and what have not been asked. There is no shame in missing information: even a book can not explore every angle of every question. Everything is too big and too interconnected. Fortunately for us, we do not need to be a Buddha or Dalai Lama to solve many of our basic problems. [Though it might help!]

If we were to extend the cause map further, we might put in a box somewhere—perhaps as the cause of the fear of isolation—called “herd mentality.” The cause of herd mentality might be found in evolutionary psychology: bands of primitive man that hung together were more likely to survive and reproduce than those who tended to “go their own way.” But such speculation into evolutionary psychology does not lead to possible solutions.

Alternative Solutions

One more possible solution is to make the way a little easier for the “confronter.” The author acknowledges that the risk of separation is real, and that ostracization or exclusion are brutally efficient punishments. But he encourages the confronter to consider the likelihood, rather than the possibility, of these negative consequences.

An alternative approach might be to really embrace the negative scenario with all the gusto we can manage. See Tim Ferriss’ video on practical pessimism:

Not only are we fired for our actions, we are abandoned by our family, shunned by our friends, and left crying in the gutter in pouring rain with a cardboard box for cover. The absurdity of it becomes quickly obvious. You may be cured or not, but it’s worth a try.

More Resources

One resource that may help an aspiring “confronter” is Hornstein’s Managerial Courage, which studied and distilled those actions and motivations which may not guarantee success, but puts the odds in our favor.

Another resource is Crucial Conversations, which provides a framework for having safe conversations about controversial, emotionally-charged subjects.

If you are a manager, supervisor, head-of-household, or leader who wishes to avoid creating your own Road to Abilene, then reading about the MBM Challenge Process is advisable. The Science of Success is a good place to start.

Posted in: Insights / Tagged: , , ,

The Ordeal of Change by Eric Hoffer

May 6, 2013 4:00 am /

The Ordeal of Change by Eric HofferBook Review: The Ordeal of Change by Eric Hoffer

It has often been said that power corrupts. But it is perhaps equally important to realize that weakness, too, corrupts. Power corrupts the few, while weakness corrupts the many. Hatred, malice, rudeness, intolerance, and suspicion are the fruits of weakness.

—Eric Hoffer

When reading Eric Hoffer it is easy to identify his work as that of an intellectual giant. This dock worker and migrant laborer turned social commentator is better read, more informed, a clearer thinker, and more in touch with reality than most college graduates.

One of the striking features of Hoffer’s writing is that it is a virtually endless supply of quotable quotes. It was tempting just to extract some juicy ones and post them. It is very difficult to “summarize” Hoffer because his writing is so concise and compact already that it is difficult to condense further.

Out of all his works, The Ordeal of Change is the third I’ve read, and the most directly relevant to management and industry. The concept of change, and human reactions to it, are of particular importance to those attuned to Market Based Management. Whether the attentive reader agrees with Hoffer or not on all points, he will come away from the book better informed about how to promote change, but more importantly what kind of change should be promoted.

Key Concepts

Key concepts are either recurring themes or strong individual points made with a fairly general application. Books with a more theoretical bent will have more “key concepts.”

  • When we have no pride in ourselves, pride in one of our associations with a collective or a leader becomes overpowering. The opportunity for meaningful individual action and self-advancement prevents mass fanaticisms. Thus, weakness is as much a corrupting influence as power, and it breeds malice and intolerance.
    • [Lesson #1: If you pay people well enough to entice them to stay but give them no support or chance to succeed, you will have the worst possible outcome: you will keep them.]
    • [Lesson #2: If you give the worker no voice at all in affairs, they will probably organize in order to be better heard. The result is usually satisfying to no one.]
  • The low social status of the intellectual in the western world causes them to promote many of the -isms of the masses. Communists may persecute their intellectuals, but they must take them seriously to do so. America tends to ignore them. In return, the Communist intellectuals have turned a criminal gang of psychopathic murderers into “saviors of the world.”
    • [Lesson: Give the men of words a place in the order to win them over. If you don't they will use their powers of persuasion to cause discontent. They are not necessarily wiser than the rest in identifying what is in their best interests.]
  • Origination [innovation] requires a loose social order where individuals have the room to tinker and follow hunches.
    • [Lesson: A rules-based culture will struggle with innovation.]
  • Not having a fixed place in the social order keeps everyone off balance. Without a guaranteed place in society, each man must prove his worth anew each day. This is not the path of fulfillment, but it at least provides men with justification for existence.
    • [Lesson: Discretionary effort will be reduced with an increased emphasis on tenure.]
  • Management is seen as mostly the same to the worker, be he ideologue, profit-seeker, technician, or bureaucrat: he sees the worker as a means to an end. Complete unity of worker and management means the worker can be taken advantage of just as though management wielded coercive power. His safety, then, lies in a well-defined division of labor separating him from management. One thing is certain: the capitalist profit-seeker is a far easier taskmaster than the ideologue.
    • [Lesson: Workers are generally suspicious of philosophical or ideological persuasions for a reason. Ideology is not the sole province of the communist, and is becoming increasingly common in American business. Thus we have a prevalence of slogans.]
  • The pioneers were not specifically seeking hardship, but if they had “made good” in the east then they would have had little incentive to leave and start over elsewhere. Hence, our vast western territories were cleared by society’s undesirables. America is the ironic result of what people from the low end of society can build when left alone.
    • [Lesson: Innovation will probably not come from well-rounded, socially-adjusted individuals. It will more likely come from wierdos, introverts, obsessives, and people with unconventional tastes. Does your recruiting process screen these people out? Does your culture make them feel unwelcome?]

Publisher’s Blurb

From Amazon.com:

Eric Hoffer—one of America’s most important thinkers and the author of The True Believer—lived for years as a Depression Era migratory worker. Self-taught, his appetite for knowledge—history, science, mankind—formed the basis of his insight to human nature. Nowhere is this more evident than in Hoffer’s seminal work, The Ordeal of Change, essays on the duality and essentiality of change in man throughout history.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Drastic Change

Chapter 2: The Awakening of Asia

Chapter 3: Deeds and Words

Chapter 4: Imitation and Fanaticism

Chapter 5: The Readiness to Work

Chapter 6: The Intellectual and the Masses

Chapter 7: The Practical Sense

Chapter 8: Jehovah and the Machine Age

Chapter 9: Workingman and Management

Chapter 10: Popular Upheavals in Communist Countries

Chapter 11: Brotherhood

Chapter 12: Concerning Individual Freedom

Chapter 13: Scribe, Writer, and Rebel

Chapter 14: The Playful Mood

Chapter 15: The Unnaturalness of Human Nature

Chapter 16: The Role of the Undesirables

Posted in: Books, Reviews / Tagged: , ,

Perverse Incentives and Unintended Consequences

April 30, 2013 10:18 am /

This Prezi was created in order to guide a discussion on perverse incentives for a group of supervisors unacquainted with Market-Based Management. This purpose is achieved by placing perverse incentives among the spectrum of unintended consequences and providing clear and concise definitions and examples. Most of the examples were selected and paraphrased from Wikipedia. A brief presentation is followed by some discussions questions which will apply the principle to the workplace.

It will be noted in the course of the presentation that the perverse incentives do not disprove the utility of the example policies, but that the negative side-effects do exist and may not be what the designers intended or wanted. [I attempted to use only examples with proven perverse incentives.]

Discussion Questions

  1. Incentives to overproduce can result from production-related metrics. For example, in Soviet Russia, factories were measured on how many tons they produced (presumably with hard labor in Siberia being the penalty of failure). Thus, they produced only very large nails. What incentives to overproduce might we have here and what drives it? Define “production” very broadly here: we could “overproduce” on-spec or off-spec product, production inputs, reports, or wasted motion or time.
  2. Incentives to underinvest can result from cost-related metrics. Every company has limited resources to invest, and good cost control practices benefit customers by keeping prices down and preventing waste. But conforming to year-old budgets also restricts us from capitalizing on emergent opportunities. What incentives to underinvest might we have here and what drives that? Define “invest” broadly: we could invest in efficiency, reliability, safety, and environmental compliance as well as production capacity. [Similarly, growth metrics can lead to overinvestment, but this may be a greater problem in marketing. My primary audience is manufacturing.]
  3. Incentives to unproductive competition can result from conflicting incentives or narrow optimization. For example, I will be fired (or denied a performance bonus) if uptime of my operating unit falls below 90%. But the stores manager will be fired (or denied a performance bonus) if he fails to cut inventory by 20%. We probably are not going to like each other very much: I want lots of spares on hand and he will work hard to get rid of them. What unproductive competition might we have here and what drives it?

More Information

For more information on perverse incentives and unintended consequences, I recommend the following works:

Posted in: Insights / Tagged: ,

Weekend Reading: The Age of the Operator-Maintainer

April 26, 2013 4:00 am /
Weekend Reading: Scary, Haunted Library

Happy Walpurgisnacht (next week)!

Trend Alert: Milennials [younger workers] share their salary more often, expect more transparency

News Flash: Koch Industries is a leading bidder for the Tribune Company

Wild, Wild West: Samurai sword-wielding Mormon bishop comes to aid of Utah neighbor [This is too just much awesome for one news article.]

Where do you start with reliability? How about clean, tight, and lubricated?

A great article [PDF] by Mark Paradies on the difficulties of causal analysis [Is causal analysis really too hard for most people? Personal experience on dozens on incident investigations would indicate in the affirmative, but it's a hard thing to accept.]

3 great questions for changing “change management” (or “management of change”)

Before you install hydraulic equipment, always, always, always consider your strategy for maintaining oil cleanliness

Solving Gearbox Water Contamination Issues

Hiring? Past job titles just aren’t that important. Really.

A Comment Better than the Original Article ["Guest" writes on 4/17 at 6:51 AM: "Your article doesn't say anything. Yes, Thatcher was one way and could have been another way, which you admit might not be better and might even be worse. Big deal! This is the problem with Leadership as an academic subject. It's wishy washy with absolutely no answers." Had me laughing.]

Terrific checklist for manual-to-automatic lubrication systems that can apply to almost any form of automation

New Hubble telescope nebula photo

Horse Head Nebula

Credit: NASA, ESA, and the Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA)

How long does it take to make something a best practice? It’s about time we changed the job title of operators to operator-maintainers

Posted in: Weekend Reading / Tagged: , , , , , , ,